Bahrain Mirror (Exclusive): There has been a lot of talk recently about the reasons for the increase in the numbers of people infected with Coronavirus. The authorities did not miss that opportunity, and began pointing fingers at Shiite citizens as usual, accusing them of being responsible for the recent increase in the COVID-19 cases due to their participation in the commemoration of Ashura.

Going back a little bit, and specifically to February, we will find that the authorities promoted that the Bahraini Shiites who were visiting holy sites in Iran were the cause of the Coronavirus outbreak in Bahrain.

At that time, sectarian incitement and contempt for Shiites increased unprecedentedly. Bahrain's Interior Minister Rashid bin Abdullah Al Khalifa accused Iran of waging a biological war against Bahrain. Meanwhile, the authorities humiliated Shiite citizens in Iran who wanted to return to the country, and delayed their evacuation until a number of them died. The authorities also tried to prevent those who were able to reach Doha and Muscat from returning to the country in a resounding scandal that showed the audacity of the regime. 

As the Ashura season approached, and in line with the state's policy of gradually opening up facilities and institutions, the Shiite majority tried to persuade the authorities to open obsequies under the same health regulations applied to other closed places, like malls, while imposing wearing masks and limiting the attendees to a certain age group, and excluding the participation of the elderly, children and chronically ill people. However, the authorities rejected all these proposals and even refused to discuss them.

Bahrain's Shiites prepared themselves to accept that the Ashura season will not be held as before and that it would be limited to live broadcasting on the Internet (this is what can be understood by Ayatollah Qassim's statement when he called for the commemoration of Ashura away from political tensions and danger). However, the authorities increased provocation when they decided to limit the duration of the broadcast to not more than 20 minutes in an unjustifiable move. This provoked a strong reaction from the Shiites, as thousands were present in public squares and mourning was broadcast via loudspeakers amid a mass presence that the state was unable to contain.

At the same time, preventing women from going to Husseiniyas or providing them with places in accordance with health requirements has had a negative impact, as women started to gather in houses without any health controls, in terms of wearing masks or abiding by social distancing.

Despite all this, the general picture of the participants in the Ashura ceremony did not reflect indifference to health precautions, but rather the images of funeral processions and mourners showed great commitment.

As a result, the increase in the numbers of COVID-19 cases was expected. Returning to the medical standard, the results of such gatherings would emerge after about 15 days, but the real bet was that these increases would not continue steadily, because of the high commitment of the participants. This has already happened. 

Bahrain Mirror followed the figures issued by the Ministry of Health, since the first night of Muharram for 40 days, and by analyzing these figures we had conclusions that we are trying to put in the hands of our readers.

Going back to the figures, we will see the following:

From 4 to 14 September, i.e. 15 to 25 Muharram (15 days after Ashura): 23 deaths were reported, meanwhile, only 33 cases were admitted to intensive care. The infection percentage reached 6.7% compared to the number of carried out tests.

However, the high adherence to health guidelines and instructions led to a decrease in cases afterwards, as we can read from ministry of health figures, but the decline did not last long, as the numbers have risen again since September 25th, coinciding with the second wave of the virus outbreak announced in a number of countries, specifically as we enter autumn, which has been warned by specialists in the World Health Organization since the outbreak of the pandemic earlier this year.

Based on those figures, we can say that the Interior Ministry statement on the eve of the 40th anniversary was misleading, when it attributed the increase in infections to the commemoration of Ashura, and claimed that most of the infections were among women and children. Experience has taught us not to believe any statement from the Ministry of Interior and even treat it with bad faith. 

What the authorities have done on the eve of the 40th anniversary of Imam Hussein martyrdom by the militarization of Shiite villages and areas was a clear target of the Shiite community and its rituals.

What we have seen from the barbaric dispersal of people attending the obsequies squares, who adhered to health precautions, was nothing but an attack on citizens. Their only sin was that they are Shiites who practice their religious rites.

Again, this effort has been based primarily on official figures published by the Ministry of Health on a daily basis, and the debate on the number and causes of infections will continue, as long as the Ministry of Health continues to hide the details of the declared cases, noting that it is the only one that can end this discussion with the facts it owns.

Date/ Date in Hijri/ Total number of Infections/ Number of new infections/ Carried out tests Percentage of infections/ Number of cases in ICU/ Percentage of cases in ICU/ Deaths number Deaths percentage

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